• Chengjin Zhao, Ting Dai, Junbo Qian, and Zhenming Ge.
• Department of Gastroenterology, Nantong First People's Hospital, Affiliated Hospital 2 of Nantong University, Nantong, China.
• J Coll Physicians Surg Pak. 2024 Apr 1; 34 (4): 413418413-418.

ObjectiveTo analyse the pertinent risk factors associated with post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis (PEP) and develop a predictive scoring system for assessing the risk of PEP in patients undergoing endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) procedures.Study DesignDescriptive study. Place and Duration of the Study: Department of Gastroenterology, Nantong First People's Hospital, Jiangsu, China, from January 2022 to January 2023.MethodologyClinical data of 375 patients who underwent successful ERCP treatment were collected and organised. Relevant risk factors for PEP were analysed, and a scoring system was established to predict the risk of PEP.ResultsAmong the 375 patients who underwent ERCP, the incidence of PEP was 9.07% (34/375). Univariate analysis revealed that female gender, pancreatic duct opacification, difficult cannulation, operation time ≥45 minutes, sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD), and biliary stenting were risk factors for PEP. Multivariate analysis showed that female gender, pancreatic duct opacification, difficult cannulation, operation time ≥45 minutes, and SOD were independent risk factors for PEP. A scoring system was developed, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis determined a cut-off value of 1.5 points. Patients with a score less than 1.5 points had a low probability of developing PEP, while those with a score greater than 1.5 points had a significantly higher probability of PEP.ConclusionFemale gender, pancreatic duct opacification, difficult cannulation, operation time ≥45 minutes, and SOD were independent risk factors for PEP. Additionally, a reliable scoring system was established to predict the risk of PEP. Clinicians can use this scoring system to assess the risk of PEP in patients and implement preventive measures to reduce the incidence of PEP.Key WordsEndoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, Post-ERCP pancreatitis, Risk factors, Risk assessment, Preventive measure.

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